“It is. always. Wise to look. Ahead. Difficult to look. Further than. you. Can see.”.
-Sir Winston Churchill
I'm a. Self confessed NBA draft junkie. what. Does that mean. exactly?
It means that I'm always. In the. Mood to write, project and speculate about the. NBA draft. one. Of my. Key findings when looking at. the. Draft is. That all I needed to build an. Effective draft model to predict player performance was. Publicly available on the. Internet.
Stunning I know. using. this. Data, I built two. models to predict the. Future performance of NBA draft picks (go here for the. Model build parts 1 &. part 2 ). In very general terms the. Models use the. Available data to predict future performance for each player coming into the. Draft from college. Based on that prediction a. Ranking is. Done and a. Draft recommendation is. Generated.
In fact, It’s been so. Successful that I get a. Lot of requests for it in multiple platforms.
That’s the. Productivity projection for every draft prospect in Draft Expresses‘. Delightful database. this. Year I’ve tried to cover every eligible prospect for whom. Any date is. Available. my. Plan as. always. is. To continue to monitor these projections in the. Future.
Explanations and more wonderful stuff after the. Jump.
Let’s review the. Models real quick for any newcomers. I built two. models specifically and I called them. : Yogi and Booboo. They both use a. Series of publicly available factors (WS40, Age,Height, etc.) to project the. Player’s Wins Produced numbers for the. Duration of a. Player’s rookie contract in different. Ways. Yogi gives the. go. Ahead for drafting at. .095 projected WP48 and Boo Boo does the. same. at. .067 WP48
A simple test for the. Models is. To look. at. Correlation between. the. place. the. Player was. Picked, where. the. Models suggested picking him. Actual rank by. Draft in terms of production. Draft order vs production shows minimal correlation with. an. R-square of about 5% . It jumps to 25% for the. Predicted production rank.
A more complex and interesting. Test is. To look. at:
If I do this. All picks by. the. Models as. Well as. All draft picks and Model picks taken. After the. Top 5 picks I get:
So to review, using. Publicly available data we. Built a. Model that picks draft winners at. a. 75% rate which is. better. In general than. having. the. #1 pick in the. Draft and big winners at. a. 40% rate which is. better. than. Everything but the. #1 pick.
But you’re. Not really here for the. Science are you? Let’s give. you. the. Money shot.
That’s all the. Prospects sorted by. Their Draft Express rankings of 6/25/2012. Just to make it easier for everyone. Let’s do some. Takeaways shall we?
That should. Tide you. Over for a. Bit.
Of course, there is. More to come.